This Week In Disinformation
1 - 7 March 2025
Russian Disinformation Claim Of Armenia-Azerbaijan Plot
📌 What Happened: Russia launched a disinformation campaign falsely accusing Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) of attempting to instigate an armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The operation centred on a fabricated document, purportedly from HUR to Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister Ivan Havryliuk, which was disseminated through Armenian Telegram channels.
The fake report claimed that Ukraine sought to provoke a new war to force Russia to open a "second front," thus diverting its forces and alleviating pressure on Ukraine.
⚡ The Fallout: This fake document has created confusion and distrust among these nations. It has the likelihood to harm peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan, further destabilizing the South Caucasus region. It also tries to damage Ukraine's global image by making it look like Ukraine wants to cause conflicts elsewhere.
The incident highlights the ongoing challenge of combating state-sponsored disinformation in the region and its impact on international relations.
🔍 The Narrative Behind It: This case exemplifies Russia's strategy of using false information to exploit regional tensions and divert attention from its own actions. By fabricating intelligence documents, Russia attempts to sow discord between neighbouring countries, weaken their alliances, and undermine Ukraine's credibility on the international stage.
This follows a pattern of media manipulation meant to destabilize regions and break trust between nations.
📝 Information Effects Statement Assessment: The Russian media's spread of a fake document claiming Ukraine's intelligence agency (HUR) planned to instigate conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a clear case of disinformation, with high confidence.
The fake document was made on purpose with the intent to mislead people. It fits the definition of disinformation as false information created and shared to cause harm. The false story tries to make Ukraine look bad and hurt its ties with Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Sources
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-spreads-fake-claim-that-ukraine-is-1740910517.html
https://odessa-journal.com/defence-intelligence-russia-seeks-to-undermine-ukraines-relations-with-azerbaijan-and-armenia
https://english.nv.ua/nation/hur-refutes-russian-fake-about-inciting-hostility-between-armenia-and-azerbaijan-50494370.html
https://global.espreso.tv/russia-ukraine-war-russia-pushes-fake-news-to-undermine-ukraines-ties-with-azerbaijan-and-armenia-intelligence
Musk Challenges And Complicates Romanian Election Disinformation
📌 What Happened: Elon Musk publicly challenged a Romanian pre-election roundtable focused on disinformation, questioning the event's motives and credibility. He leveraged his influential social media presence to cast doubt on the roundtable's objectives, suggesting it was part of a strategy to manipulate electoral narratives.
Musk specifically targeted the involvement of certain NGOs and media outlets, accusing them of bias. Additionally, he supported Romanian politician Călin Georgescu, whose election victory was annulled due to allegations of disinformation and foreign interference. Musk also shared false information about the EU's role in the election process, complicating the situation and fuelling debates about his influence on Romanian politics.
⚡ The Fallout: The controversy has intensified debates over disinformation's influence in electoral processes and social media's role in political communication. Romanian stakeholders have expressed mixed views, with some defending open discussion and others concerned about external influence, particularly from figures like Elon Musk. This has increased scrutiny over how digital platforms shape public perceptions during elections.
The incident has prompted calls for clearer guidelines on foreign interference. Romanian officials have labelled Musk's actions as "interference," highlighting the need for stricter regulations on social media during election seasons.
🔍 The Narrative Behind It: The incident shows a broader trend where tech moguls and influential voices complicate disinformation campaigns by challenging coordinated narratives. It highlights the tension between protecting electoral integrity and the growing power of social media in shaping political debate. The episode reveals how geopolitical interests and market influences converge in today's information ecosystem, making it harder to maintain transparent political discourse.
This situation also underscores the complex relationship between free speech advocacy and the potential for inadvertent amplification of misleading information. It raises questions about the responsibility of global tech leaders in navigating local political landscapes.
📝 Information Effects Statement Assessment: Musk's intervention in Romanian politics is a case of malinformation. Malinformation is factual information used out of context to mislead or cause harm. While Musk highlighted real concerns about election integrity, his actions have likely amplified false information and complicated efforts to combat disinformation.
The impact of Musk's involvement is substantial, with moderate confidence derived from the interplay of social media influence and political dynamics. His posts on X (formerly Twitter) have reached millions of followers, potentially shaping public opinion on Romanian electoral processes.
Shifts in public sentiment are already evident, with Musk's intervention fuelling debates about foreign interference and the role of social media in elections. Further authoritative insights, particularly from Romanian officials and EU bodies, will be key indicators for reassessment. These developments are directly affecting stakeholder trust and may influence future electoral outcomes.
Sources
https://www.euractiv.com/section/tech/news/musk-attempts-to-undermine-romanian-pre-election-disinformation-roundtable/
Trans Pilot Jo Ellis Targeted by Disinformation, Faces Safety Threats
📌 What Happened: Jo Ellis, a transgender Black Hawk pilot in the Virginia Army National Guard, became the target of a disinformation campaign. False claims spread rapidly on social media, wrongly linking her to a fatal helicopter crash near Reagan National Airport on January 29, 2025.
The fake stories claimed Ellis was the pilot responsible for the crash that killed 67 people. To counter these lies, Ellis posted a "proof of life" video on January 31, showing she was alive and not involved in the incident.
However, since then, groups have conducted disinformation actions on Jo Ellis, risking personal safety and well being.
⚡ The Fallout: Ellis now faces severe harm to her safety, welfare, and career. She conceal carries a pistol and has hired private security due to threats. The false claims have been fuelled by heated debates about transgender rights in the military. This has led to increased scrutiny of policies affecting transgender service members, including discriminatory targeting.
The incident highlights how easily disinformation can spread and cause real-world harm to individuals and communities.
🔍 The Narrative Behind It: This case shows how false information targets vulnerable groups to deepen social divides. A concerning flow on effect is the real world threats that cause harm. It's an effect of disinformation that disassociates reality and incorrectly allows the perception of harm.
The incident followed comments by political figures linking diversity policies to the crash, despite zero evidence. This pattern of using lies to stir up conflict and shape public opinion on sensitive issues is becoming more common.
📝 Information Effects Statement Assessment: The targeted disinformation campaign against the transgender U.S. National Guard pilot has significant personal and societal consequences, with high confidence based on multiple corroborating sources.
The high confidence in this assessment stems from consistent reporting across multiple credible sources and official statements. Alternative explanations, such as genuine policy misunderstandings, are less plausible given the coordinated nature.
Sources
https://www.barrons.com/news/vilified-as-boogeyman-disinformation-ensnares-us-trans-pilot-7c215269
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/digital-future-daily/2025/02/27/georgescu-right-vance-musk-disinformation-00206505
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/elon-musk-ramps-up-romanian-election-row-branding-chief-judge-tyrant-2025-02-20/
Lilian Seenoi-Barr Target Of Disinformation
📌 What Happened: Lilian Seenoi-Barr, the first Black mayor of Derry City and Strabane District Council, has been subjected to a disinformation campaign marked by online threats and racist abuse.
This campaign has escalated in recent weeks, with far-right figures amplifying false narratives about her background and intentions. The abuse directed at Seenoi-Barr often has implicit and explicit racist undertones. As the first Black mayor in Northern Ireland, she has faced prejudice and attacks specifically targeting her race and heritage.
⚡ The Fallout: The intensified abuse has compelled Mayor Seenoi-Barr to enhance her security measures, impacting her ability to perform her duties without concern for personal safety. SDLP leader Claire Hanna has publicly condemned the ongoing smear campaign, highlighting its detrimental effect on both the Mayor and the broader community.
🔍 The Narrative Behind It: This incident reflects a broader trend where far-right groups utilize disinformation to target minority leaders, aiming to sow discord and perpetuate xenophobic narratives. By disseminating false information and leveraging social media platforms, these groups seek to challenge diversity and inclusion in political representation.
📝 Information Effects Statement Assessment: The targeted disinformation campaign against Mayor Seenoi-Barr underscores the challenges minority leaders face in combating racism and misinformation.
We assess with high confidence that such campaigns aim to undermine social cohesion and deter minority participation in politics. Alternative explanations, such as isolated individual actions, are less plausible given the coordinated nature of the abuse. This situation necessitates robust responses from authorities and civil society to protect democratic values and promote inclusivity. Indicators to monitor include the proliferation of similar disinformation campaigns targeting other minority figures and the effectiveness of measures implemented to counteract such threats.
Sources
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2dl6yjk56o
https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2025-03-05/black-mayor-forced-to-increase-security
https://www.derryjournal.com/news/politics/sdlp-leader-claire-hanna-calls-out-constant-abuse-towards-derry-mayor-lilian-seenoi-barr-5021381
🗣️ Let’s Talk—What Are You Seeing?
📩 Reply to this email or drop a comment.
🔗 Not subscribed yet? It is only a click away.