This Week In Disinformation
21 - 28 Feb 25
Elon Musk’s False Claim at CPAC
📌 What Happened: On February 20, 2025, at CPAC, Elon Musk repeated claims that President Joe Biden intentionally "imported" illegal immigrants to create a new voter base. He asserted the Biden administration pushed to "maximize" illegal immigration, viewing each individual as a potential "customer" and voter.
⚡ The Fallout: Musk's claims reignited the debate over immigration policy and its alleged impact on elections. Fact-checkers debunked his statements, citing government data showing over 4.5 million removals, returns, and expulsions during Biden's tenure. It must be noted that there is zero proof around Elon’s statement released at CPAC. Experts highlighted the lengthy naturalization process and the lack of evidence supporting mass non-citizen voting.
🔍 The Narrative Behind It: This event exposes the persistence of the "voter replacement" conspiracy theory within right-wing discourse. It shows how influential figures often leverage incorrect information to stoke anti-immigrant sentiment and delegitimize democratic processes. The incident also highlights the challenges of combating false narratives when prominent individuals with large platforms amplify them.
📝Information Effects Statement Assessment: The confidence level in this assessment is moderate to high as disinformation. Musk's false claims likely aim to undermine public trust in elections and fuel anti-immigrant sentiment, with high confidence given the established history of similar disinformation. Alternative explanations, such as unintentional misstatements, are less probable given the deliberate nature of the claims.
The spread of this disinformation will impact public support for immigration reform and increase political polarization.
Sources:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czd5l0d3794o
https://www.yahoo.com/news/no-joe-biden-did-not-110300135.html
https://apnews.com/article/musk-chainsaw-trump-doge-6568e9e0cfc42ad6cdcfd58a409eb312
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/3172844/fact-check-elon-musk-claims-immigrants-voting-swing-states/
Climate Change Sceptics Used Manipulated Data
📌 What Happened: On February 22, 2025, a group of climate change sceptics released a report falsely claiming global temperatures decreased in January 2025, suggesting a global cooling trend. The report manipulated data, cherry-picked outdated temperature readings, and misrepresented natural climate variability to support its claims.
⚡ The Fallout: The false report briefly caused temporary confusion in public discourse. Climate scientists quickly debunked the claims, highlighting methodological errors and the misinterpretation of climate models. The incident underscored the ongoing challenge of combating climate disinformation, especially during extreme weather events and in the lead-up to important climate conferences like COP30.
This work has been highlighted, researched and assessed by Pesa Check.
🔍 The Narrative Behind It: This disinformation event reveals a pattern of climate denial tactics, exploiting public uncertainty and political shifts. With the new US administration's hostility to climate action, false climate information is set to thrive. The incident highlights the growing profitability of climate denial content and the ease of producing false narratives using generative AI.
📝Information Effects Statement Assessment: It is assessed that the original post has been done as an act of disinformation. The confidence level in this assessment is moderate to high due to the clarity of their intention as well as treatment of the data. The deliberate spread of false climate data aims to undermine public trust in climate science and hinder climate action policies, with moderate confidence based on consistent patterns of climate disinformation tactics. Alternative explanations, such as genuine misinterpretation of complex climate data, are less probable given the systematic nature of the false narratives.
This event may significantly impact public opinion and policy decisions regarding climate change, potentially delaying crucial environmental initiatives. Key indicators to monitor include increased frequency of similar false claims, policy shifts reflecting climate scepticism, and public engagement with climate science resources within this network.
Sources:
https://pesacheck.org/false-global-temperatures-did-not-decrease-in-january-2025-8dd33d8c68ae
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyjk92w9k1o
https://wmo.int/media/news/january-2025-sees-record-global-temperatures-despite-la-nina
https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/digital-threats/falsehoods-and-forecasts-our-2025-predictions-climate-disinformation/
OpenAI Cracks Down On AI-Powered Surveillance Tools
📌 What Happened: OpenAI identified and disrupted two Chinese influence campaigns that misused its AI tools. One campaign generated Spanish-language anti-American disinformation targeting Latin American audiences, marking the first known instance of Chinese operations producing long-form content in Spanish. Another campaign utilized ChatGPT to create marketing materials for a social media monitoring tool allegedly employed to report protests to Chinese security services.
⚡ The Fallout: These revelations have heightened concerns about the misuse of AI technologies in spreading disinformation. OpenAI's proactive measures underscore the escalating challenge of detecting and countering AI-enhanced influence operations. The incidents have prompted discussions among policymakers and tech companies about implementing stricter safeguards and monitoring mechanisms to prevent the exploitation of AI for malicious purposes.
🔍 The Narrative Behind It: This development highlights the evolving tactics of state actors in leveraging advanced AI tools to conduct sophisticated disinformation campaigns. The strategic shift to target non-English-speaking populations indicates an expansion of influence operations to a broader global audience. It also raises questions about the ethical responsibilities of AI developers and the need for international collaboration to establish norms and regulations that deter the misuse of artificial intelligence in information warfare.
📝 Information Effects Statement Assessment: The exploitation of OpenAI's tools by Chinese influence campaigns signifies a concerning advancement in disinformation strategies. This utilizes AI to craft persuasive content aimed at diverse linguistic audiences.
The confidence level in this assessment is high, based on OpenAI's direct identification and intervention. Alternative hypotheses could involve independent actors misusing AI without state sponsorship. If such AI-driven disinformation efforts persist, they will undermine public trust in information systems and exacerbate geopolitical tensions. Key indicators to monitor include the emergence of similar AI-generated disinformation in other languages and regions, and increased collaboration between tech companies and governments to address these threats.
Source
https://www.axios.com/2025/02/21/openai-chinese-influence-campaigns
https://www.govinfosecurity.com/china-using-ai-powered-surveillance-tools-says-openai-a-27585
https://www.mobileworldlive.com/ai-cloud/openai-cracks-down-on-misuse-in-china-north-korea/
https://thehackernews.com/2025/02/openai-bans-accounts-misusing-chatgpt.html
India Is Assessed To Be Conducting Influence Operations In Canada
📌 What Happened: Canadian intelligence reports revealed that Ankit Srivastava, vice-chair of India's Srivastava Group, was allegedly directed by Indian intelligence agencies to influence Canadian politicians. This involved providing financial support and propaganda materials to sway political opinions in favour of India's interests. The Srivastava Group was also accused of creating fake news websites, some mimicking Canadian media outlets, to disseminate pro-India and anti-Pakistan narratives. These activities have raised significant concerns about foreign interference in Canada's political and media landscapes.
⚡ The Fallout: These activities have raised significant concerns within Canadian national security circles about potential impacts on the integrity of Canada's political processes and media landscape. The alleged disinformation campaigns and attempts to influence politicians have strained diplomatic relations between Canada and India, leading to heightened scrutiny of foreign interference in domestic affairs.
🔍 The Narrative Behind It: This case exemplifies the sophisticated methods employed in modern disinformation campaigns, including the use of seemingly legitimate media outlets to sway public opinion and political decisions. It highlights the challenges democracies face in safeguarding their institutions against covert foreign influence and the importance of vigilance in media consumption.
📝 Information Effects Statement Assessment: The Srivastava Group’s alleged disinformation efforts indicate a likely attempt to manipulate Canada’s political landscape through covert influence operations. While intelligence reports strongly suggest a connection to Indian state actors, further verification is required due to the lack of publicly disclosed, direct evidence proving official Indian government involvement. This is understandable due to sensitive nature of inter-state relationships.
The confidence level in this assessment is moderate to high, with plausible alternative explanations including independent actions by private actors or nationalist groups without state direction. If confirmed, this case could drive Canada toward stricter foreign influence regulations and expanded counter-disinformation measures. Key indicators to monitor include new intelligence disclosures, financial or communication links between Srivastava and Indian officials, and shifts in India-Canada diplomatic relations.
Sources
https://globalnews.ca/news/11015090/india-canada-foreign-interference-disinformation/
https://globalnews.ca/news/10850080/india-visas-foreign-interference-canada/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/10/why-is-canada-accusing-india-and-pakistan-of-election-interference
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/canadian-intelligence-report-india-identified-as-foreign-interference-threat-with-potential-to-influence-elections/articleshow/107384603.cms
https://toronto.citynews.ca/2023/06/05/india-among-top-actors-for-foreign-interference-in-canada-national-security-adviser/
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